Sunday, December 14, 2008

My Bowl Picks

My Bowl Predictions (Conference Standings follow)
EagleBank Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Navy

New Mexico
Colorado State vs. Fresno State

magicJack St. Petersburg
Memphis vs. South Florida

Pioneer Las Vegas
BYU vs. Arizona

R+L Carriers New Orleans
Southern Miss vs. Troy

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
Boise State vs. TCU

Sheraton Hawaii
Hawaii vs. Notre Dame

Motor City
Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan

Meineke Car Care
West Virginia vs. North Carolina

Champs Sports
Wisconsin vs. Florida State

Emerald
Miami (Fla.) vs. California

Independence
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech

Papajohns.com
NC State vs. Rutgers

Valero Alamo
Missouri vs. Northwestern

Roady's Humanitarian
Maryland vs. Nevada

Texas
Western Michigan vs. Rice

Pacific Life Holiday
Oklahoma State vs. Oregon

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
Houston vs. Air Force

Brut Sun
Oregon State vs. Pittsburgh

Gaylord Hotels Music City
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt

Insight
Kansas vs. Minnesota

Chick-fil-A
LSU vs. Georgia Tech

Outback
South Carolina vs. Iowa

Capital One
Georgia vs. Michigan State

Konica Minolta Gator
Nebraska vs. Clemson

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi
Penn State vs. USC

FedEx Orange
Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech

AT&T Cotton
Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech

AutoZone Liberty
Kentucky vs. East Carolina

Allstate Sugar
Utah vs. Alabama

International
Buffalo vs. Connecticut

Tostitos Fiesta
Ohio State vs. Texas

GMAC
Ball State vs. Tulsa

FedEx BCS National Championship Game
Florida vs. Oklahoma

Conference Standings:
Big 12 (7-0, 1.000)
Sun Belt (2-0, 1.000)
Big East (5-1, .833)
MAC (4-1, .800)
WAC (4-1, .800)
ACC (4-6, .400)
SEC (3-5, .375)
MWC (1-2, .333)
Big 10 (2-5, .285)
Pac-10 (1-4, .200)
Indep. (0-2, .000)
C-USA (0-6, .000)

Final Playoff Determined

Here's how the playoff would shake out if it started at the end of the season. Again, this is using the formula of (Winning % + Strength of Schedule). This isn't the most complex formula by any means, but it means a couple of things. First and most obvious, teams have to win. Secondly, those teams in weaker conferences need to schedule tougher. And overall conferences need to give themselves a boost to help member schools that make the playoff.

I was surprised that Ball State got in as high as they did. The fact that they went undefeated was the deciding factor, had they lost one game then most likely they would not be in the playoff. Texas got the boost over Oklahoma purely based on strength of schedule. Alabama won more games, but it was tougher for Texas to win 11 games meaning they get the nod. Perhaps Nick Saban would make the note to himself that he needs to schedule tougher or keep the SEC up.

1. Texas (1.556) (Big 12)
- A round against the Big 12 south and Missouri gave their strength of schedule a boost.

2. Alabama (1.546) (SEC
- A down SEC with opponents like Ole Miss, Tennessee and Auburn as well as two-win non-conference foe Western Kentucky didn't help either.

3. Florida (1.542) (SEC)
-Their one loss kills them, if they're undefeated they're score is 1.622.

4. Utah (1.541) (At-Large)
-Again they fact that the Utes are undefeated helps because without all 12 wins, they're towards the bottom in seeding.

5. Oklahoma (1.520) (Big 12)
-A loss to Texas appears to be the only difference.

6. Texas Tech (1.520) (At-Large)
-Ditto for the Red Raiders.

7. Boise State (1.488) (At-Large)
-Is Boise truly the seventh best team in the country? Well, that's up for debate, but they went undefeated with an okay schedule, which proved to be better than one- and two-loss teams in the Big 10, Pac-10 and ACC.

8. Penn State (1.450) (Big 10)
-Their one loss drops them to the middle of the pack. If they're undefeated they're potentially in the top five.

9. Ball State (1.432) (At-Large)
-This one is sure to spark debate. Jason Whitlock would support this, but to say Ball State is better than powers USC and Ohio State, that's up for real debate. Nonetheless, I'm picking the Cards in a first-round win over Penn State.

10. USC (1.431) (Pac-10)
-Thanks to the Pac-10 being weak this year, it hurts their best team, the Trojans. Their strength of schedule is .511, not great but no bad either. My thought is that USC and Pete Carroll will be pressuring fellow conference teams to strengthen not only their teams but also their schedules.

11. Ohio State (1.426) (Big 10)
-Ohio State actually had one of the tougher schedules. It fell in the top half of the 16 teams. However their two losses hurt them and they'll be playing a pass-heavy Texas Tech team. Smells like trouble.

12. Cincinnati (1.395) (Big East)
-Again a weak conference is what makes the difference for the Bearcats.

13. Virginia Tech (1.354) (ACC)
-12 weeks of craziness in the ACC forces the Hokies to fall towards the bottom of the seedings.

14. Oregon State (1.332) (Pac-10)
-The Beavers played four ranked teams, beating one of them. A first-week loss against Stanford was probably the biggest difference for the Beavers. It also would have helped if the Beavers beat the Ducks last week.

15. Pittsburgh (1.328) (Big East)
-An average team in an average conference.

16. Boston College (1.310) (ACC)
-Closing out the bracket is a victim of the ACC craziness.

1. Texas
16. Boston College
-Texas should cruise.

8. Penn State
9. Ball State
-Nate Davis and Co. are primed for an upset in the playoffs in State College, PA. They would go onto play a tough Texas team.

5. Oklahoma
12. Cincinnati
-A re-match of an earlier season game. Boomer Sooner rolls again.

4. Utah
13. Virginia Tech
-Utah should have no issues and win will create a very good game with Oklahoma.

3. Florida
14. Oregon State
-The Gators should have no problems.

6. Texas Tech
11. Ohio State
-You have to like Texas Tech, they hit a little bit of a rut here at the end but get by the Buckeyes.

7. Boise State
10. USC
-Perhaps the most intriguing match-up of the playoff. The Trojans have been a perennial National Title contender this decade, while the Broncos have by wanting a chance they can play with the big boys still after their upset over Oklahoma two years ago. This game will be played in Boise, and the Broncs win a close one on the smurf-turf.

2. Alabama
15. Pittsburgh
-Alabama. Enough said.

QUARTERFINALS
1. Texas
8. Ball State
-Hook 'em rolls in this one.

4. Utah
5. Oklahoma
-The Utes think they're ready for the Sooners' attack, but get left in the dust. Big Game Bob and his bunch win big.

3. Florida
6. Texas Tech
-For as good as Harrell and Crabtree can be, I think Tebow and Harvin would be much more and the Gators would go onto win this one.

7. Boise State
2. Alabama
-Boise takes the Tide down to the wire, but Alabama survives for another week.

Semi-Finals: (A very similar scenario to what we are seeing this weekend, except Missouri is playing Oklahoma. What an exciting weekend of college football this potentially could be.
1. Texas
5. Oklahoma

3. Florida
2. Alabama

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

My Playoff Revisited

So yesterday I introduced my idea for what seemed to be a fair playoff system for college football. Now I'd like to tweak things a little bit.

I looked at how teams were seeded in the tournament and wasn't a big fan of it. So I have come up with my own equation. It's simple. (Strength of Schedule + Winning Percentage) It's similar to the OPS percentage in baseball (On Base + Slugging)

Here's the math:
Georgia .647+.800
Texas .626+.900
Oklahoma .626+.900
Florida State .600+.780
Florida .593+.890
Texas Tech .571+1.000
Pitt .565+.780
Missouri .527+.800
USC .500+.890
Penn State .494+.900
Alabama .434+1.000
Boise State .467+1.000
Cincinnati .532 + .780
Oregon State .550+.670
Utah .510+1.000
Ohio State .800+.591
North Carolina .780+.548

Texas (1.526)
Oklahoma (1.526)
Florida State (1.380)
Florida (1.483)
Texas Tech (1.571)
Pitt (1.345)
Missouri (1.327)
USC (1.390)
Penn State (1.394)
Alabama (1.434)
Boise State (1.467)
Cincinnati (1.312)
Oregon State (1.220)
Utah (1.510)
Ohio State (1.391)
North Carolina (1.328)

OVERALL SEEDINGS
1. Texas Tech (1.571)
2. Texas (1.526)
3. Oklahoma (1.526
4. Utah (1.510)
5. Florida (1.483)
6. Boise State (1.467)
7. Alabama (1.434)
8. Penn State (1.394)
9. Ohio State (1.391)
10. USC (1.390)
11. Florida State (1.380)
12. Pitt (1.345)
13. North Carolina (1.328)
14. Missouri (1.327)
15. Cincinnati (1.312)
16. Oregon State (1.220)

Bracket
1. Texas Tech
16. Oregon State

8. Penn State
9. Ohio State

5. Florida
12. Pitt

4. Utah
13. North Carolina

3. Oklahoma
14. Missouri

6. Boise State
11. Florida State

7. Alabama
10. USC

2. Texas
15. Cincinnati

With the exception of the Penn State-Ohio State which has already been played these match-ups come out much more enticing. A second-round match-up between Texas and Alabama or USC would be very exciting. What about the 2007 Fiesta Bowl grudge match between Boise State and Oklahoma. Oh and Florida-Utah, nothing better the The Urban Meyer-Bowl, huh? And that top second round matchup between Texas Tech and Penn State or Ohio State. Even though that matchup is intra-Big 10, it eliminates the conference that always makes a fool of itself in the National Title Game.

All games will be played at Neutral sites which will be determine after the match-ups are released and are sites that seem geographically in the middle between the two campuses.

Site Examples
Texas Tech/Oregon State-Invesco Field at Mile High (Denver)
Penn State/Ohio State-Paul Brown Stadium (Cleveland)
Florida/Pitt-Carolina Panthers stadium in Charlotte
Utah/North Carolina-Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Neb)
Oklahoma/Missouri-Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
Boise State/Florida State-Edward Jones Dome(St. Louis)
Alabama/USC-Sun Bowl (El Paso)
Texas/Cincinnati-Liberty Bowl (Memphis, TN)

Should a venue be unavailable then the game would be moved to a near venue. EX: Game in Nashville moved to Vanderbilt Stadium.

Second Round Venues:
Cotton Bowl-Dallas, TX (Host Texas Tech vs. TBA)
Citrus Bowl-Orlando, FL (Host Potential Florida v. Utah)
Rose Bowl-Pasadena, Calif (Host potential Oklahoma v. Boise State)
Sugar Bowl-New Orleans, LA (Host potential Texas v. Alabama)

Semi-Final
Fiesta Bowl-Glendale, AZ (Host Texas Tech v. Florida/Utah winner)
Orange Bowl- Miami, FL (Host Oklahoma/Boise State v. Texas/Alabama)

National Championship
Miami, FL

Now My Projections:
Second Round:
Texas Tech v. Penn State

Florida v. Utah

Oklahoma v. Boise State

Alabama v. Texas

Semi-Final Round
Texas Tech v. Florida

Texas v. Oklahoma

Championship
Texas Tech v. Texas

Sure this is a Big 12 Match-up but it has been decided a playoff, and so at this point conference affiliation should be disregarded and the two best teams in the country should play for a National Title.

Monday, November 10, 2008

My Idea

I was never in favor of a playoff system on college football. I felt like 12 weeks determined a lot as it was, but then earlier today I did some thinking and realized there may be an alternative so here it goes:

-Eliminate the ACC, Big 12 and SEC Championships.

-The Big 12, Big 10, ACC, Big East, Pac-10 and SEC would all receive two bids. In those conferences divided into divisions, the top team from each division would earn the bid. In conferences without divisions it would be the top-two teams in the conference, because essentially those teams with conference championships still give teams with a lesser record a shot at an automatic bid to a BCS Bowl.

-There would be four at-large bids. The at-large bids would be determined by a BCS-like system and would be the top four teams not receiving an automatic bid.

-I am using this week’s BCS rankings for the example.

-Seeding would be determined by conference affiliation. The stronger the conference, the better the seed for the team; this would push strong non-conference scheduling with the incentive that as a whole the conference would earn their teams better seeds.

-It’s tough to sell that Florida State should be a higher seed than Alabama, but it would all come out in the wash.
-Conference seeding this season via the Sagarin ratings:
1. Big 12
2. ACC
3. SEC
4. Big 10
5. Big East
6. Pac-10

Now for the overall seedings:

Big 12 (1): Texas Tech
ACC (1): Florida State
SEC (1): Alabama
Big 10 (1): Penn State
Big East (1) Pitt
Pac 10 (1): USC
At-Large (1) Texas
At-Large (2) Oklahoma
At-Large (3) Utah
At-Large (4) Boise State
Big 12 (2) Missouri
ACC (2) North Carolina
SEC (2) Florida
Big 10 (2) Ohio State
Big East (2) Cincinnati
Pac-10 (2) Oregon State

Overall Bracket below:

1) Texas Tech
16) Oregon State

8)Oklahoma
9) Utah

5) Pitt
12) North Carolina

4) Penn State
13) Florida

6) USC
11) Missouri

3) Alabama
14) Ohio State

7) Texas
10) Boise State

2) Florida State
15) Cinicnnati

Monday, October 6, 2008

I live for this time of year.

Not too bad of sports weekend, could have been better. The College Football slate lacked some punch, but the MLB playoffs are underway and what more can you ask for. It's too bad the National League divisional series didn't provide more excitement, the Cubs were swept and the Brewers ended up flat against the Phillies.

That leaves us left with the AL series, and that's how it should be. Beckett struggled last night in a game that lasted forever between teh BoSox and the Angels and hopefully the Rays can hold of the surging White Sox. Should both the Rays and Red Sox advance, I like the Red Sox. They have the experience they need and shouldn't be phased by the dome in Tampa because they play there so frequently.

I saw Missouri this weekend against Nebraska. They're the real deal, and much better than Alabama hands down. Their offense is so flawless and runs so well. I'm still not a big fan of that booger eating Chase Daniel. I hope he doesn't win the Heisman. Sam Bradford from Oklahoma has a very good opportunity to show what hes got on Saturday in the Red River Rivalry in Dallas.

As for Western, they're going to host the 25th-ranked Ball State Cardinals. Yes, I just put Ball State and Ranked in the same sentence. I don't think Western will be able to pull of the upset, however it will be exciting with them in town this weekend.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Four in Four weeks

I'm three weeks through my journey of four stadiums in four weeks. It hasn't been a bad tour thus far.

It started in Tuscaloosa, Ala. for the Alabama-WKU game. Although WKU lost, it was my first taste of SEC football first hand and I was impressed by the whole atmosphere.

Stop number two was a place I'm getting more and more familiar with. Houchens-Smith Stadium. The tailgating is great and starts really early in the day. It's a very intimate setting and provides for a great backdrop for college football.

The third stop was Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Ky. While Bryant-Denny in Tuscaloosa proved superior to the Cats' efforts, they should still be commended. The folks there have something they're not used to--a good football team, and they're doing a good job of embracing things.

Lastly stop number four will come this Saturday and be my favorite place, Memorial Stadium in Lincoln for the Nebraska-Missouri matchup. Missouri hasn't won there since the 70s and look to do it on Saturday. Im already excited.

The baseball playoffs start this week. Of course, my beloved Royals missed out on them. What a crying shame. Nonetheless I think they'll provide plenty of excitement.

See you soon!

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Wacky Wednesday

I am slowly recovering from white-water rafting this past weekend on the Ocoee river. I would personally recommend rafting to anyone that has a free weekend and doesn't mind a four hour drive down there. We rafted both the upper and middle part of the river. The upper part was not nearly as exciting as the middle part, despite the fact that the Upper portion of the river hosted the 1996 Olympics.

WKU plays its final game against in-state rival Eastern Kentucky on Saturday. We plan to take a good look at the rivalry tomorrow in the Herald and debate whether or not it is good that the rivalry is in-fact ending for the time being.

I remember in 1997 when the Nebraska/Oklahoma rivalry ended. For so many years this was a critical part of both team's schedule but in the decade since the Big 12 was created, both teams have recovered. Nebraska now plays Colorado the day after Thanksgiving and that game has provided plenty of memories.

The Royals are just plain awful right now. They're so bad, the Royals have decided theyre going to sell tickets for their Sept 18-20 series against Seattle for $3. Personally that's sickening, but they gotta do what they gotta do.